Assumptions, Conclusions & Courses of Action

Module 03 — Lesson 0003 · In Depth · 45 min

Critical reasoning is gap logic: premise → unstated link → conclusion, and then what to do next. Assumptions fill the past/present gap, conclusions are what must follow, courses of action fix the future.

1. The Structure of an Argument — Anatomy

Argument anatomy — premise, assumption, conclusion Premise facts / evidence “All renewable are eco-friendly” Assumption unstated link (must hold) “Solar is renewable” Conclusion claim derived “Solar is eco-friendly” If assumption fails → argument collapses
Premise → (unstated) Assumption → Conclusion. Remove the assumption and the chain breaks.
Part Role Example
Premise Facts / evidence given "All renewable energy sources are eco-friendly."
Assumption Unstated link premise→conclusion "Solar is renewable" (must be true for conclusion to follow)
Conclusion Claim derived "Therefore, solar power is eco-friendly."

2. Statements and Assumptions — The Missing Link

An assumption is not stated but must be true for the argument to hold. If false, the argument collapses.

How to Identify

Worked — Negation test: Statement: "Companies should offer remote work to reduce attrition." Candidate assumption: "Employees value flexibility." Negate → "Employees do NOT value flexibility" → then remote work wouldn't reduce attrition → argument collapses → this is the assumption. Candidate "All employees prefer remote" is too extreme → not the unstated link.

3. Statements and Conclusions — What Must Follow

A conclusion is a judgment that logically follows from the statement — directly supported, no outside knowledge.

Rules

4. Courses of Action — What Should We Do Next?

A course of action is a step/administrative decision for improvement, follow-up, or further action.

Criteria for a Valid Course

Criterion Test Example
Solves the problem Directly addresses core issue? Water contaminated → provide alternative water ✓ vs blame industry ✗
Feasible / practical Realistic to implement? Traffic high → improve public transport ✓ vs ban all cars ✗
Balanced Doesn't create a bigger problem? Defect rate ↑ → improve QC ✓ vs cut benefits ✗

Also: ensure the action targets the cause (outdated machinery → modernize machinery), not just the symptom.

Valid course of action — three filters Proposed Action e.g., “Ban all cars” Solves? Feasible? Balanced? → Valid ✓ → Reject ✗ yes no
All three filters must pass. Failing any one → reject the course of action.

5. Comparison of Question Types

Type Focus Key Question
Assumption Missing link (past/present) "What must be true for this to make sense?"
Conclusion Result (present) "What logically follows from this data?"
Course of Action Solution (future) "What should we do next to fix this?"

6. Strategic Solving Tips

Unstated link premise→conclusion is?

Negate candidate: argument fails → candidate is?

Assumptions are usually?

Conclusion must be?

Valid course of action must NOT be?

Which targets cause? Outdated machinery → high costs.

Assumption vs Conclusion: “What must be true for this to make sense?”

Contaminated water → valid action?

Notes

Argument :-

Premise ⇒ facts ; Assumption ⇒ unstated link (must hold) ; Conclusion ⇒ claim derived

If assumption false → argument collapses

Assumptions :-

Gap strategy ⇒ find missing link ; Negation test ⇒ negate → if fails → valid assumption

Avoid extremes ⇒ always/all/never × unless supported

Conclusions :-

Stick to facts ; signals therefore/thus/hence ; Valid if follows premise (even if factually wrong)

No generalization beyond scope

Courses of Action :-

Valid if: solves core issue + feasible + balanced (no bigger problem)

Target cause, not symptom (eg machinery → modernize)

Types :-

Assumption ⇒ missing link (What must be true?) ; Conclusion ⇒ result (What follows?) ; Course ⇒ solution (What to do?)

Primary source: none pinned yet — drop your preferred video/book resource into RESOURCES.md and it will be linked here. Ask me anything that's unclear.

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